Weather worries.

[penk.livejournal.com]

So I've been tracking the weather for New Lebanon, NY for the last week, and it's been wobbling between "horrific" and "painful", with occasional forays into "it might not rain all the time". Right now I'm leaning toward skipping this year, which makes me sad because I haven't missed a baitcon in about 12 years.

I guess what I'm asking is - what do folks think in this situation? When I was younger and more flexible, camping in the rain didn't seem so bad - it could get a little uncomfortle, but hey, it's camping! What do you want, a sofa?

But I guess in my older age being cold, wet, and uncomfortable for 2 days doesn't sound like a lot of fun (my last big 'baitcon rainy visit' was when a bunch fo Mosaic folks came - this was at hte old location, and te only reason I survived that with a 3yr old in tow was because I had the camper trailer. I don't have that anymore, so tenting would be the default, and that doesn't sound like a lot of fun).

What I do worry is damaging the event. My party would be 4 people - providing a not insignificant amount of money into the con. If enough people choose not to attend, how badly does this put Bait and the rest of the concom into the hole?

What are folks' thoughts for the weekend?

Comments

[ringrose.livejournal.com]

My weatherbug predicts 50% chance of showers or thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday (it doesn't show me more days). Mostly or partly cloudy. High of 76 or 78, but I'd expect the mountaintop to be a few degrees cooler. Maybe I'm strange but that strikes me as somewhere between pleasant and wet.

I'll be tying down the tent in case some wind goes through, double-checking the rain fly, and putting a tarp down. But I'm going under the assumption that when it rains, we'll just get under cover.


I'm not trying to say you should enjoy rain. That's a personal decision nobody can make for you. But 50% chance of rain means that on average, there's a 50/50 chance of measurable rain at any place in the area during any 12 hour period.


That said, have you checked to see if there is any cabin space still available (and would that change your decision)?

[vvalkyri.livejournal.com]

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/US/NY/New_Lebanon.html. Showing things like 20% chance...

[(Anonymous)]

FWIW... Weather on the mountain always feels a bit different than at mink hollow. It's wooded, and with plenty of drainage. So while mink hollow feels flooded, the mountain just feels wet. Storms also seem to blow around it more often than hover over it.

--seph

[penk.livejournal.com]

Unfortunately, it's deteriorating.

Friday

Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. Fog early. High of 75F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Friday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 61F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.5 in. possible.
Saturday

Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog early. High of 79F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Saturday Night

Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog overnight. Low of 61F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Sunday

Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 75F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

[ringrose.livejournal.com]

Part of the problem is some people use wunderground, others use weather dot com, and others use weather dot gov.

To me, it looks like weather com and gov have more optimistic forecasts while wunderground has a more pessimistic one.


(And I'm saying "dot" because otherwise there are enough foo.bar references that LJ decides it is spam)

[deguspice.livejournal.com]

At the moment, NOAA says 50% chance of rain for New Lebanon for Friday, Saturday is 40% and 30% for Sunday,

Depending upon how concerned you are, you can try some of these suggestions.

If it's really going to be raining, pack extra clothes and a spare towel to keep in the tent (In addition to one for the shower).
Leave a dry change of clothes in your car for the drive home.
Bring a pair of sandals that you don't mind wearing if they get wet.
Bring a couple of garbage bags to put your stuff in.
Bring two tarps. Put one over your tent (suspended from the trees), put another tarp underneath your tent, but make sure it's folded it's not visible.

Be prepared to have fun and go dancing in the rain.

[kimberlogic.livejournal.com]

from seph (not sure if folks can see his comment - he's not on LJ so it was anonymous)

"FWIW... Weather on the mountain always feels a bit different than at mink hollow. It's wooded, and with plenty of drainage. So while mink"hollow feels flooded, the mountain just feels wet. Storms also seem to blow around it more often than hover over it."

And I tend to agree. We have a lot more covered space at this site - including (though it's a bit off from the main area) a pavilion tent that can seat 100 (and could be used, if necessary, as dry storage or sleeping space). Also, many storms do seem to circle the mountain or just leave it wet, not soaked. The worst we've had is the day is poured hard rain for 8 hours during unload/set-up. That was rough.

We don't do weather-related refunds though if you haven't paid I guess that's a non-issue.